Globetrottin' With The Hollywood Whorin' Press Association

Tuesday, December 13. 2005

Globetrottin' With The Hollywood Whorin' Press Association

The Golden Globes announced their 63rd annual nominations this morning and provided about 63 years worth of confusion into this year's Oscar race. Giving life to film's that were dying a slow death in the race and ignoring others probably cause they didn't see them until late or their brains couldn't process everything in time to make their pencils work.

They have continued to give strength to Ang Lee's Brokeback Mountain, again leading the pack with 7 nominations after taking top prize from the LA & NY critics.

Two of this year's expected front runners, Munich and King Kong, both failed to receive Best Picture nominations yet Steven Spielberg and Peter Jackson each received a nod for Best Director. Munich's screenplay was nominated as was James Newton Howard's rush-job score for Kong, an odd choice considering it may be the most unnoticeable aspect of the film.

If you want some statistics or just a fan of the show Numbers (as I am), this doesn't necessarily bode well for both films to come away with a Best Picture nod at the Oscars.

With 10 films in two Picture categories to choose from, 6 of the last 10 years have seen the five finalists cobbled together from the Globes' 10 choices and 2 of those years saw four of the choices. This year those choices are (with my own odds of their chances)

Brokeback Mountain (EVEN)
The Constant Gardener (8-1)
Good Night, and Good Luck (3-1)
A History of Violence (15-1)
Match Point (10-1)

Mrs. Henderson Presents (25-1)
Pride & Prejudice (4-1)
The Producers (6-1)
The Squid and the Whale (100-1)
Walk the Line (2-1)

Was Squid and the Whale really a comedy? Where in the hell is The 40 Year-Old Virgin in all of this? I must credit Collin Souter who surmised that the group "probably thought the movie was making fun of them." Walk the Line steals a slot in the comedy category by default because it happens to have songs in it and if it manages to win, it's a lock. Not that I don't think it isn't already, but only 3 times in the last ten years have both Drama and Comedy/Musical winners failed to each get a nomination. Also shut out of the big categories are hopefuls Capote, Cinderella Man, Crash and The New World. Memoirs of a Geisha and Syriana continue their death march, although the latter picked up a couple surprising nominations for Supporting Actor and Score.

The acting categories are a bit less stable in the past decade. In a bit of reversal, only three times have all five Oscar nominees come from the Globe picks, although five times there has only been one absentee from the Globe list. This year, your 11 choices are:

Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man (8-1)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote (EVEN)
Terence Howard, Hustle and Flow (6-1)
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain (2-1)
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck (5-1)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Peirce Brosnan, The Matador (100-1)
Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale (15-1)
Johnny Depp, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (25-1)
Nathan Lane, The Producers (10-1)
Cillian Murphy, Breakfast on Pluto (50-1)
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line (3-1)

No Eric Bana for Munich and no Tommy Lee Jones (The Three Burials of Melquaides Estrada) who could show up as a late underdog. Other than that, few surprises. As for the ladies, 6 of the last 10 years have shown up with the Globes getting 5 of their nominees Oscar nods. This could easily be 7 out of 11.

Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents (3-1)
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice (4-1)
Laura Linney, Squid and the Whale (25-1)
Sarah Jessica Parker, The Family Stone (100-1)
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line (EVEN)

-------------------------------------------------------------

Maria Bello, A History of Violence (10-1)
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica (5-1)
Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof (8-1)
Charlize Theron, North Country (6-1)
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha (12-1)

No Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger) and clearly everyone has forgotten about Julianne Moore and The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio by now. Also no Q'Orianka Kilcher for her turn as Pocahontas in The New World, so either the Hollywood Whorin' Press Association didn't get to screen it in time or they are thinking sensibly that the film is absolute garbage. Kilcher isn't bad though, so she may drum up some late heat from the Malick slurpers.

The Supporting categories get very sketchy. Only twice apiece for the actors and actresses have the Globes gone 100%. Without two categories going for them, I only see a few close-to-locks in here.

George Clooney, Syriana (10-1)
Matt Dillon, Crash (3-1)
Will Ferrell, The Producers (25-1)
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man (2-1)
Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents (6-1)

Clooney is going to get honored behind the scenes for Good Night and Good Luck, so I'm fairly confident to strike that choice. After all, William Hurt (A History of Violence) is going to get somebody's place. And of all the performances in The Producers, do you really think the Academy is going to nominate Will Ferrell over Matthew Broderick, Gary Beach or Roger Bart? I doubt it. Speaking of which - where is UMA?!!! My choice to win the Oscar this year (singing - dancing - accent) ignored by these morons? Well, in 2002 the same thing happened to Catherine Zeta-Jones for Chicago. No Globe nomination. She gets the Oscar nod and wins it. Also getting no love was the supporting cast of Munich (Geoffrey Rush, Daniel Craig, Ciaran Hinds, Michael Lonsdale). Someone is due from that group. Clifton Collins Jr. (Capote) must have been completely forgotten about as he hasn't received any notices yet during award season.

Scarlett Johansson, Match Point (2-1)
Shirley MacLaine, In Her Shoes (8-1)
Frances McDormand, North Country (5-1)
Rachel Weisz, Contant Gardener (6-1)
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain (EVEN)

Catherine Keener had great supporting work in four different films this year, yet she's ignored. Amy Adams (Junebug) looks like the Little Engine That Could, unless its run by the HFPA. Some were chalking up a win for Diane Keaton (The Family Stone) but she's nowhere to be found. Maria Bello went lead, so she may still come back here for Oscar night. These 5 have all been on the Oscar Eye depth chart for some time now, so its hard to blindly eliminate any of their chances. I'd still only bet on Williams and Johansson as locks though.

Best Director

Woody Allen, Match Point (5-1)
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck (4-1)
Peter Jackson, King Kong (10-1)
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain (EVEN)
Fernando Mereilles, The Constant Gardener (8-1)
Steven Spielberg, Munich (2-1)

You want sketchy? Welcome to it. Spielberg and Jackson get nominations but their films don't and I already suspect that Munich and King Kong will get Best Picture recognition, but Jackson will fall short since he just won two years ago. That being said - not once in the last TEN YEARS have all of the Globes' directors gotten nominated. Only 4 times has 4 of the 5 received nominations and in the three years when 6 directors were nominated, the Oscars picked out 2 (1995), 4 (2001) and 3 (2002). Those six are going to be hard to weed out, even with the potential of James Mangold (Walk the Line), David Cronenberg (A History of Violence) and Terrence Malick (The New World).

Best Screenplay

Brokeback Mountain (EVEN)

Crash (EVEN)
Good Night, And Good Luck (2-1)

Match Point (EVEN)
Munich (EVEN)

While only once since 1995 has all five Globe nominees received slots amongst the 10 Original and Adapted scripts, this may undoubtedly be the second. Brokeback and Munich should be locks in the Adapted while Crash and Match Point look like gold in the Original category. Good Night and Good Luck, by the slimmest of margins could be the odd man out if someone can't thinks its original status is hurt by a good chunk of the film being based on transcripts and television footage. With limited slots, scripts ignored include (original) Broken Flowers, Cinderella Man, The Family Stone, Hustle & Flow, Mrs. Henderson Presents, The Squid and the Whale, The Three Burials of Melquaides Estrada and (adapted) Capote, The Constant Gardener, A History of Violence, King Kong, Memoirs of a Geisha, The Producers and Walk the Line.

Finally, anyone who has ever heard of Best Original Song nominee - Christmas in Love - they are lying. Cause no one has heard of it.

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Last modified on 2009-01-06 20:12

Defined tags for this entry: 40 year old virgin, awards, brokeback mountain, film critics, golden globes, king kong, memoirs of a geisha, producers, syriana

Posted by Erik Childress in Award Season at 21:19 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

< Golden Globe nominations announced. Hollywood Foreign Press remains weird. | Other Networks Hoping to Get Arrested?? >

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Globetrottin' With The Hollywood Whorin' Press Association

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Tuesday, December 13. 2005

Globetrottin' With The Hollywood Whorin' Press Association

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