How Many Bullets Did Kong Take Before Falling?

Six Wednesday openings since 2002 over $20 million. There have only been seven in HISTORY! The seventh? The return of Star Wars known as The Phantom Menace in 1999. Where does Kong’s $9.7 rank? 21^st. Yes, behind Pokemon as Grudge so callously observes. But consider this:

- 12 of the films above Kong are sequels (if you count Phantom Menace and Batman Begins.)

- Only 9 of the Top 20 were released on a date when school was still in session.

- Only 5 of the films were released in December during the same period. Three of those were Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings films.

So let’s not call King Kong dead in the jungle just yet. You can spin it to the positive just as easily as Drudge did by saying it’s the third best Wednesday opening of 2005 (behind War of the Worlds and Batman Begins). Shrek 2 was the FOURTH best Wednesday opener in 2004 ($11.7 million) and it went on to gross $441 million, good enough for the third highest grossing film in history. But, like the negative, it’s a defense that can’t yet be justified since IT’S ONLY BEEN OPEN FOR TWO DAYS!!!

Instead, let’s do something crazy and do some thinking outside the box and consider what King Kong has in store for it. To speculate that it had the potential to do “Titanic-like” numbers were both premature and pretty ludicrous. The highest 3-day opening in December’s history belongs to The Return of the King with $72.6 million. Last week, The Chronicles of Narnia was good enough for second ($65.5). Conservatively, if Kong only comes up with $60 million over the 3-day weekend, it will still be looking at $76 million for the five-day. Yes, only about 33^rd on the all-time 5-day list – but just more than The Fellowship of the Ring which is currently the 3^rd highest December 5-day ever and 1 of only 3 December openings to do a 5-day of over $75 million. (Narnia managed $74.1.) The other two? The Return of the King ($124) and The Two Towers ($102). And that’s being conservative.

What does Kong have to look forward in its journey through December? On the positive side, it has a 2-day head start on Xmas vacation for the kids. Yes, it begins for many kids this weekend until Jan. 3. That’s 17 days of vacation when the movie theaters will be packed. Working against it is the unfortunate calendar placement of the Christmas and New Year holidays which fall on Saturday and Sundays. You lose a few showings on Christmas Eve, but since 2002 the top grossing film on New Years Day has risen each year from $10.2 million (Fellowship) to $18.2 (Meet the Fockers). The same goes for Christmas, rising from $10.9 (Cast Away) to $19.5 (Fockers).

But Erik, you say, Kong is not the only film in the marketplace and is about to get some stiff competition in the coming weeks. Oh really? By whom? The Family Stone, Cheaper by the Dozen 2, Fun with Dick and Jane, The Ringer, Rumor Has It, and Wolf Creek? You mean those advance ticket sellers? If they are lucky, there are two $100 million grossers in that bunch. And now I’m being liberal, even if I say just north of $100 million. Wolf Creek and The Ringer aren’t even cracking 2,000 screens. The Producers, Munich, Memoirs of a Geisha and Brokeback Mountain are going to gestate in their platform releases before launching wider. The former two will be on less than 1,000 screens Christmas day. Does anyone believe that Kong won’t be #1 until January?

Yes, it’s three hours long, limiting the play times – but Titanic was ten minutes longer.

Yes, it’s not a sequel – but it’s a remake which should have a built-in audience.

This is a story that can be spun negatively by the press and positively by studio execs. But shouldn’t it be given the courtesy of being allowed to breathe a little before the hammers come down? How many declared The Polar Express a "bomb" last year, before it just kept growing in audience numbers en route to over $160 million. If that winds up as Kong’s final tally, then yes, it will be a disappointment. But anything less than $250 probably would be. Shall we just declare its Oscar chances dead because we found a critic who didn’t like it? Of course not. But we should let the experts do the prognosticating and the real journalists, who understand both sides of the story, do the reporting.